There was a time when the rules of retail were straightforward. Store shelves were battlegrounds where competition played out clearly: brands offered loyalty, private labels provided savings, and retailers chose their alliances. In 2025, the rules have evolved, and so has the game.

Private labels have transformed from basic value-tier products into serious competitors with distinct identities, narratives, and in some cases, cult-like followings. Branded products, once dominant by default, have had to refine their purpose, rethink their messaging, and rebuild emotional and ethical connections with customers. This is not necessarily a binary conflict, it’s a dynamic redistribution of value.

Today’s retail landscape is a lot like Monopoly. Owning the most expensive properties doesn’t guarantee success. Strategy, adaptability, and balance are what matter. The same principle can be applied to food retail.

In the United States, private label products now hold a 20.7% market share, with total sales exceeding $270 billion. In Europe, the trend is even more pronounced: private labels make up nearly 40% of grocery sales, rising above 50% in countries like Switzerland and Spain. A recent report from Nielsen IQ indicates that 50% of global consumers are purchasing more private label products than ever.

In markets like Germany (61%), Spain (58%), Italy (53%), France (54%), and India (56%), private label penetration is well above average, and even in the U.S. and Canada, around 48% of consumers are now increasing their private label purchases (46% in the UK).

Retail Reinvented

At the same time, the retail landscape is undergoing significant changes. Store closures surged in 2024, with over 7,100 shuttered in the U.S. and nearly 13,000 chain outlets closing in the UK alone. Yet almost 5,800 new stores opened in the U.S., and around 9,000 in Britain, mostly concentrated in discount, club, and value-oriented formats. Some retailers are falling behind, as happens in any business sector, while others are evolving. Modern, flexible approaches are increasingly replacing traditional retail models. Stores are becoming more curated, mission-driven, and digitally connected. Whole Foods, for example, has launched its “Daily Shop” concept in New York: smaller-format stores tailored to urban convenience and online integration.

This shift positions private labels not as margin tools, but as strategic assets. Retailers now oversee the entire lifecycle, from product conception to shelf execution, allowing faster innovation, deeper alignment with consumer data, and greater control over sourcing and pricing. Branded products aren’t yielding ground. Instead, they’re responding with focused storytelling, social media influence, and agile marketing. Today’s most successful brands don’t just compete on quality, they thrive on coherence, cultural relevance, and consistency.

Where Online Meets In-Store

Retail spaces are evolving into curated experiences. In the U.S., grocers like Sprouts are treating their stores and shelves as narrative platforms, not just product displays. In Europe, Carrefour and Albert Heijn have reimagined stores to emphasize freshness, digital integration, and specialty foods. In China, Alibaba’s Hema stores blend physical shopping with digital services, live cooking, and app-based checkout. In Canada, Loblaws is investing in urban flagship stores, while in Mexico, La Comer is developing gourmet markets that blend food halls with retail.

At the same time, direct-to-consumer (DTC) food brands are rewriting the playbook.

Many leading U.S. food startups – Blue Apron ($420M in annual revenue), HelloFresh (founded in Germany in 2011, $8.1B global revenue), and ButcherBox – started online as direct-to-consumer brands; Blue Apron and HelloFresh later entered select U.S. retail, while ButcherBox remains exclusively online. In Italy, Cortilia connects hundreds of producers with consumers through a digital-first platform that prioritizes freshness and convenience. The DTC food market, valued at $50.7 billion in 2023, is projected to reach $195.4 billion by 2031. That explosive growth is driven by consumers who want personalization, traceability, and direct relationships with the brands they trust.

Yet the most transformative development is the rise of omnichannel food retail. Leading global players are investing heavily in formats that blend the digital and physical. Walmart now commands over one-third of U.S. online grocery sales, turning stores into logistics hubs. Amazon is fusing its grocery banners into a unified ecosystem. Carrefour is streamlining quick delivery with drive-up options. Aeon is rolling out automated fulfillment centers. Alibaba’s Freshippo offers real-time delivery, app-based shopping, and interactive in-store experiences.

These players aren’t choosing between online and offline, they’re integrating both. The result is a seamless, always-on shopping journey where the consumer decides the channel and the retailer delivers the outcome. Consumer behavior has shifted toward online grocery shopping in recent years. In China, approximately 13% of grocery sales now occur online, while in South Korea the figure is around 12%. The United States also reports that about 12% of grocery sales take place online. In Europe, the United Kingdom leads with roughly 10% of grocery sales online, followed by France at 8%. Italy and Germany are rapidly catching up, with each reporting nearly 6% of grocery sales made online.

Across all regions, the trend is the same: grocery shopping is increasingly hybrid, personalized, and tech-enabled. Global online grocery sales are projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2027 and could reach or exceed $2 trillion by 2030. Physical grocery stores won’t vanish, but they are being reimagined as spaces for inspiration, sampling, and fulfillment.

Winning Today’s Game

The game has changed. In Monopoly, victory doesn’t go to the player with the most expensive hotels, but to the one with the smartest spread, steady traffic, and a strategy that keeps the game moving. The same holds in food retail. Success isn’t always about owning the most expensive real estate on the board. It’s about building places, online and offline, that people return to with trust, curiosity, and a sense of belonging.

The most valuable products today aren’t always the most expensive. They’re the ones that deliver meaning, value, and cultural relevance. Retailers and brands that recognize this aren’t chasing dominance by scale, they’re building ecosystems with clarity and purpose. In this new era, the goal isn’t to win the shelf, it’s to play well. To design smarter. To include more. And to keep everyone in the game.

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Giovanni Quaratesi

Giovanni Quaratesi is the Head of Corporate Global Affairs at Certified Origins, leading the company’s communication strategies and public relations. His mission is to be an ambassador for good food and to empower others to create positive change in the food system.