Olive oil production in Northern Africa: An ascending industry facing climate challenges

By Charlotte Venner — Dec 1, 2025

8 MIN READ

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In 2022, a study in Nature revealed that humans in Morocco were using olive branches and fruits around 100,000 years ago.1 Given this ancient history, it might be surprising to learn that the present-day olive oil industry in Northern Africa is relatively young. “The olive oil industry in Northern Africa is a unique blend of ancient heritage and dynamic modern growth,” says Mr. Walid Gaddas, Managing Director of STECIA International.

When the climate stabilized 12,000 years ago, permanent agriculture became easier in many places, including around the Mediterranean Sea. In the last few decades, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt began producing high-quality olive oil at scale for the first time, with the help of significant investments, new technology, a growing market, and government support.2-3

Today, the olive oil industry in this region is at a crossroads, challenged by climate change. Sources like Fortune Business Insight project steady growth, forecasting the “emerging region in the global olive fruit oil market” of Middle East and Africa to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.26% from 2025 to 2032, while recent strong development of the market has solidified Northern Africa’s reputation as a reliable producer of premium olive oil.4

However, growth forecasts may not consider the future impacts of a changing climate, from the annual likelihood of year-plus extreme drought spiking as high as 77% to extreme heat surpassing 45°C becoming an annual occurrence. As global average temperature passes 1.5°C above preindustrial averages (a full degree warmer than when Northern Africa first began supplying global markets), the delicate balance of conditions in this Mediterranean climate is shifting, creating and intensifying climate risks. As reported by Olive Oil Times, a Tunisian olive oil producer said recently, “Our olive season in Tunisia is truly at the mercy of climate change these days […] We’re seeing more and more unpredictable weather.”

Looking ahead to further warming, the future of Northern African olive oil production depends on anticipating and preparing for climate change in order to adapt to these growing risks.

Today’s changing climate

Along with increasing the frequency and intensity of dangerous heat, climate change disrupts precipitation patterns by altering how the atmosphere holds and releases moisture. For every 1°C increase in temperature, air can hold approximately 7% more water vapor. Like a sponge, this extra capacity draws up moisture from the ground, plants, and bodies of water (increasing evaporation) and holds it for longer (delaying precipitation). When rain does fall, it is often in the form of deluges on parched soil that cannot absorb it.

In Northern Africa, disrupted precipitation and high temperatures caused by climate change are challenging olive oil production by thwarting fruit development, disrupting growth cycles, damaging trees, and endangering workers.6-7-8 As reported by Olive Oil Times, in 2024 and 2025 Tunisia faced heatwaves and erratic precipitation, while Morocco contended with disastrously dry conditions.9 As precipitation patterns challenged the crops themselves, dangerously high heat impacted the ability of workers to manage and harvest the olive oil trees.10

In 2025, Moroccan olive oil producers experienced their third straight year of declining production as a result of persistent drought and high temperatures.11 A local farmer told Olive Oil Times, “Morocco is facing a severe drought that has lasted for six years now. This prolonged dry period has caused significant challenges for our agricultural sector, affecting crop yields and water availability.”12

The projections of climate models, as shown in Probable Futures maps, confirm that at 1.5°C of warming (approximately current levels of global warming), the likelihood of extreme drought persisting for longer than a year reaches between 21% and 33% in many parts of the region.

These drought conditions have contributed to a drastic decline in olive oil production: “The production of a single olive tree compared to the previous year has decreased by about half, affecting the amount of oil extracted from these low harvests.”13

The ideal amount of precipitation for an olive tree is 400-1,000mm per year.14 Climate model projections show that changes in precipitation at 1.5°C of global warming are causing annual precipitation in some parts of Northern Africa to dip below that 400 mm threshold.15 Even olive trees that are adapted to drought conditions will produce less fruit in drier years when these rainfall quantities are not met.16

Projections of heat tell a similar story. At 1.5°C of warming, parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt can be expected to experience dangerous wet-bulb heat, a combination of high temperatures and high humidity that is dangerous to human health.

Dry heat is also a risk to the trees themselves, limiting where and how well olive trees can grow.17 A 2019 research paper states, “Proper olive cultivation areas have a mean annual temperature of 15–20°C, with a minimum of 4°C and a maximum of 40°C.”18 In our historic climate, most of the Northern African olive growing region had an average temperature between 15°C and 25°C.19 In the map below, one can see that at 1.5°C of warming, the historically very rare occurrence of temperatures intolerable to olive trees (above 40°C) increases in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt.

Looking ahead to 2°C, 2.5°C, and 3°C

The Mediterranean climate that enabled olive trees to thrive in Northern Africa was characterized by mild temperature swings and plenty of winter precipitation. However, climate change will drastically disrupt these weather patterns in the future. As we reach further degrees of warming, the question becomes whether the delicate climate of this region has entered a permanently drier, hotter state—a state that makes it harder for olive trees to thrive and for laborers to safely work outdoors with them.

Looking at Probable Futures maps, it’s clear that the likelihood of drought and intensity of heat increases significantly over 2°C, 2.5°C, and 3°C. By 3°C, Northern Africa is projected to go from having an annual likelihood of year-plus extreme drought of under 10% to, in some places, likelihood as high as 77%. In certain parts of Northern Africa at 3°C, extreme heat surpassing 45°C may go from historically extremely rare to an annual occurrence.

As the climate warms, the dry, arid climate of the Sahara Desert expands. By 3°C, much of the land in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt that was temperate is likely to become arid, shrinking that special Mediterranean climate ideal for growing olives. This Probable Futures map of climate zones demonstrates the permanence of these drying and heating trends.

Speaking about this transition, Mr. Gaddas says, “dry spells are indeed lengthening, and Northern Africa is undergoing an aridification process, meaning it is shifting toward a permanently drier climatic state. This is not just a cycle of a few bad years, but a long-term trend driven by climate change.”

Those parts of Northern Africa that currently enjoy cool, wet winters will only continue to produce olive oil if farmers are able to adapt to inevitably hotter and drier conditions.

Adapting to a Warming World

As Naouel Bouabid told Olive Oil Times, the impacts of climate change “[make] farming a continuous effort of adaptation.”20 Farmers in Northern Africa have developed innovative techniques to make their olive crops more resilient to changing weather conditions, a practice that will be necessary to maintain the industry into the future.

For example, Tunisian farmers plant prickly pear cacti in and around their olive trees to prevent erosion, improve soil health, conserve water, and reduce wind exposure.21 A recent study on Egyptian olive oil recommended that farmers invest in drought-resilient cultivars and use strategies to enhance soil moisture retention.22 Mohamed Dawood, an Egyptian agricultural engineer, told the Daily New Egypt that, “In Egypt, many of our new olive plantations are in marginal lands where water efficiency is already a challenge. If the climate becomes drier […], yields will suffer unless we change how we manage irrigation and soil health,” and that findings on the future of climate change in the region, “underscores the urgency of adapting our agricultural practices.”23

Other adaptation strategies, like improved water management, precision irrigation, and using genetically engineered drought-tolerant varieties, can help olive oil trees better survive dry spells, while simple behavioral fixes, like earlier harvests, can prevent fruit damage from extreme heat.24 In addition, farmers can adjust their behavior during heatwaves to avoid the hottest times of day to labour outside. Farmers are even adapting to permanent changes in climate by shifting areas of production to more favorable microclimates.

Some producers are already seeing success deploying these adaptation techniques, overcoming drought and heat to still create award-winning olive oil.25 The Tunisian olive oil industry is expected to see a record harvest in 2025/2026, proving that, even amid the challenges of climate change, boom years can still happen.26

As Mr. Gaddas says, “while many of these adaptations remain at an early stage, they represent a growing shift toward climate-resilient olive farming systems designed to sustain productivity under increasingly harsh environmental conditions.” The future of this local industry now depends on how quickly and effectively olive oil producers can adopt climate adaptation strategies and adjust to a permanently drier, hotter climate.

Charlotte Venner

Charlotte Venner is Content Director at Probable Futures. She oversees written resources and communications across all Probable Futures offerings, working with language to bridge the gap between climate science and culture.

Sources:

  1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-022-01109-x
  2. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382254748_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_Olive_Production_in_Egypt
  3. https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/04/13/olive-oil-at-risk-climate-change-threatens-mediterraneans-liquid-gold/
  4. https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/middle-east-and-africa-olive-oil-market-107549
  5. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  6. https://phys.org/news/2024-06-stress-olive-oil-climate.html
  7. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  8. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6681365/
  9. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  10. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  11. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/moroccan-producers-face-third-straight-year-of-declining-production/136221
  12. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/moroccan-producers-face-third-straight-year-of-declining-production/136221
  13. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/moroccan-producers-face-third-straight-year-of-declining-production/136221
  14. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6681365/
  15. https://probablefutures.org/maps/?selected_map=change_in_total_annual_precipitation&version=latest&scenario=1.5&view=mercator#4.25/34.08/9.71
  16. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6681365/
  17. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6681365/
  18. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6681365/
  19. https://probablefutures.org/maps/?selected_map=average_temperature&version=latest&scenario=0.5&view=mercator#3.68/33.33/12.49
  20. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  21. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  22. https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/04/13/olive-oil-at-risk-climate-change-threatens-mediterraneans-liquid-gold/
  23. https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/04/13/olive-oil-at-risk-climate-change-threatens-mediterraneans-liquid-gold/
  24. https://phys.org/news/2024-06-stress-olive-oil-climate.html
  25. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/production/sustainable-practices-help-north-african-producers-triumph-in-tough-season/140466
  26. https://www.oliveoiltimes.com/business/tunisias-olive-oil-sector-faces-record-harvest-amid-price-collapse-and-fraud-allegations/142027

 

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