Welcome to the Olive Oil Monthly market update powered by Certified Origins. We will provide you with relevant and transparent information on Extra Virgin Olive Oil (EVOO) and Olive Oil (OO) trends to help you navigate the market.
OLIVE OIL MARKET
The war in Ukraine and its consequences on the sunflower oil crisis keep stressing the olive oil market. In April 2022, global prices for vegetable oils were 46.45 percent higher than in April 2021. We don’t expect the situation to improve any time soon.
Although extra olive oil prices are not affected as much as refined oils, market prices remain high but stable.
According to the Olive Oil Times, the final balance of the global olive oil production in 2022 should reach 3.378 million tonnes against the 3.010 million tonnes of the previous season: an increase of +11% compared to 2021 and +8% compared to the last five years’ period average (3.104 million tonnes).
Spain, the largest global Olive Oil producer, reported an output of 1.148 million tonnes of oil from 2022 crop estimates released in April and is on target to reach 1.149 million tonnes total. This final balance would represent +66% of the total global production and an increase of +7% versus last year.
Italy also increased its production by +9% (approx. 300.000 tonnes), and about Portugal’s record crop we wrote already in our last report (around 225.000 tonnes).
Greece’s total olive oil yield will be around 225.000 tonnes, with a -18 % reduction compared to the 275.000 tonnes of 2020/21.
Overall, positive numbers are coming from the Olive Oil production in non-Eu countries, where we see an increase of +15% (1.125 million tonnes versus 959.000 tonnes the previous year).
NEW TRADE AGREEMENTS IN TUNISIA
The Tunisian government has negotiated a new trade agreement with the European Union to guarantee fair competition with European producers. Tunisia and Europe Olive Oil trade currently operate under a duty-free- trade agreement with a yearly cap of 56.000 tonnes.
Soon all Tunisian Olive Oil producers exporting Olive Oil to Europe from Tunisia using this duty-free trade agreement will have to file for special permission from their Ministry of Agriculture one week before each shipment.
This initiative should improve the traceability and quality of Olive Oil import and export procedures between the two areas.
BLOOMING SEASON AND FORECASTS
The Olive tree blooming season is going well across the Mediterranean area. But although the rain in the first months of this year have been very favorable for the field, farmers fear that the expected heat wave in the next coming weeks could damage the production of the next harvest. During May, the Olive flowers will start turning into fruits and will allow farmers to release the first volume projections. The markets are stable, waiting for the first official forecasts.
Our sourcing specialists expect the market for Extra Virgin Olive Oil to stay sustained as the lack of Sunflower oil drives the demand for refined Olive Oil and vegetal oil alternatives.
In the months to come, the Olive Oil producers and traders will have to take into account the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the growing trend in the cost of commodity goods, driven by difficulties across the supply chain, such as fertilizers, labor, transport, packaging, and energy.
Given these multiple elements of uncertainty ahead, our current recommendation is to plan coverage for volumes and inventory for the short-medium term. Please reach out to talk with your team of sales experts, for any additional question, comment, or question you may have.
Olive Oil Times
International Olive Council
Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food