Managing Pressure: Climate Disruptions, U.S. Trade Shifts, and Sustained Prices
7 MIN READ
By Franziska Finck — February 25, 2026
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Persistent heavy rains and strong winds in Spain and parts of Italy have disrupted the olive sector throughout January and February.
While rainfall following a two-year drought was a welcome event, the intensity and timing, coinciding with the harvest peak, have caused significant delays in farming operations and localized damage. Consequently, production forecasts from these two regions may require downward revisions in the coming weeks.
The market has already reacted to the prospect of these supply disruptions.
According to Poolred, average prices in Spain have increased by approximately 6% month over month. Conventional extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) is trading around 4.60 Eu/Kg, with premium and certified organic (Bio) lots commanding higher values, reaching up to 5.70 Eu/Kg.
In Italy, the market remains stable. Conventional EVOO is trading at approximately 6.90 Eu/Kg, and organic EVOO at 7.50 Eu/Kg. Tunisia, also affected by increases, remains the most competitive origin, with conventional EVOO at roughly 3.70 Eu/Kg and organic exceeding 4.00 Eu/Kg.
Below are the prices recorded by some of the leading trade monitoring platforms for Olive Oil and agricultural goods Poolred, Junta de Andalucia, and ISMEA:
Latest Olive Oil Market Figures from Official Industry Sources
**Note: Reported prices are averages across multiple quality grades. Premium, traceable, clean, pesticide-free extra virgin olive oil typically trades at higher values.
With the Italian harvest officially complete and operations in Spain and Tunisia wrapping up, the market is experiencing a period of cautious official evaluation. This uncertainty is reflected on Italy’s main pricing platform, ISMEA, which currently lists no official EVOO prices.
Extra Virgin Olive Oil Price Evolution
Sources: Poolred, Ismeamercati.
Spanish and Italian Olive Oil Stocks by End of January
Olive oil production in Spain fell slightly short of initial peak expectations for January.
Preliminary data from the Spanish Food Information and Control Agency (AICA) indicates a cumulative campaign production of 1,044,116 tons, with 321,039 tons milled in January alone.
Despite ongoing harvesting across numerous Spanish mills, Spain, the world’s largest producer, accounting for nearly half of global olive oil output, is reporting relatively low overall availability of high-quality Extra Virgin Olive Oil.
During the month of February, market transactions encompassing both domestic sales and exports remained strong, reaching approximately 123,380 tons. Meanwhile, packer inventories increased significantly, rising from 160,000 tons at the end of December to 209,230 tons by the end of January.
The total Spanish olive oil stocks currently stand at 943,688 tons. This inventory buildup reflects both the natural peak of the production cycle and cautious commercial strategies by key players, amid uncertainty about future demand and price developments.
In Italy, the situation shows a different but equally noteworthy trend.
As of January 31, 2026, data published by the inspection authority, ICQRF, indicates total olive oil stocks of 299,396 tons. This represents a substantial 39.7% year-over-year increase, signaling improved domestic availability driven primarily by a better harvest in the southern regions.
Together, the data from Spain and Italy highlight a complex market environment in Southern Europe, characterized by elevated stock levels, shifting demand dynamics, and ongoing tension about future pricing trends.
Key Figures of the Olive Oil Market (February) (in Tons)
Managing Climate Stress Risk Factors: Evaluating Tree Health and Supply Constraints
Climate dynamics have emerged as the primary variable shaping production, trade flows, and pricing in the global olive oil sector. As noted by the Associazione Italiana dell’Industria Olearia (ASSITOL), environmental management is now the most critical factor in campaign performance. While extreme weather events, including persistent rainfall, strong winds, and flooding in Spain and Southern Italy, have kept current yields below initial recovery expectations and resulted in an “uneven” campaign, these challenges are also rapidly accelerating industry-wide innovation.
In Spain, the localized impacts will require active management and specific adaptation strategies. Based on preliminary data from agricultural insurer Agroseguro (via Olimerca), recent weather events have affected approximately 11,300 hectares of olive groves.
Overall, farmland damage is reported across 22,200 hectares, with potential expansion to 40,000 hectares. Andalusia, the sector’s most critical region, faces the primary impact with over 8,080 hectares of affected groves, followed by Castilla-La Mancha (~1,500 ha) and Extremadura (~1,200 ha).
In Southern Italy, specifically Calabria, Sicily, and Puglia, recent weather disruptions are testing regional resilience further.
These regions, responsible for a substantial share of Italy’s olive oil production, are simultaneously dealing with the structural effects of Xylella fastidiosa, which has reduced baseline production capacity in the past years (especially in Puglia), as well as waterlogged fields and alternating periods of extreme heat and drought that stress trees and disrupt flowering.
In Italy, rather than being viewed only as setbacks, these events are also being treated by both independent farming communities and public institutions as a reason to support and potentially revitalize one of the country’s flagship productions.
These compounding environmental pressures appear to be prompting a broader and more coordinated operational response across the Mediterranean region, with a growing focus on resilience through modernization.
U.S. Olive Oil Market: High Demand & Trade Uncertainty
The U.S. olive oil market remains one of the most dynamic in the world, with rising demand and growing imports despite macroeconomic challenges. According to the Olive Oil Times, the U.S. imports over 97% of its olive oil, making it almost entirely dependent on foreign production. In a single month in 2025, imports reached over 66,000 tons, nearly double the previous year.
Total imports for 2024 were 278,000 tons (+8.7% vs. 2023) with a market value of around $2.5 billion USD, mainly sourced from Italy, Spain, and Tunisia. Import prices have risen significantly, reflecting strong demand for high-quality products.
The U.S. regulatory and import landscape has seen recent updates following the implementation of new import taxes in mid-2025. On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled against the application of the IEEPA tariffs, which had imposed a +25% duty on imports from Tunisia and a +15% duty on imports from the EU, leading U.S. Customs and Border Protection to halt their collection effective February 24.
Following this decision, the U.S. administration announced a revised tariff framework under Section 122. The measure, initially proposed at 10%, is valid from February 24 for up to 150 days, with the possibility of an adjustment to 15%, as announced by the White House.
This series of events introduces significant new risk factors into operational planning for U.S. and foreign trade partners. Given the necessity of a future Congressional vote, U.S. retailers, buyers, and importers are actively restructuring agreements, contracts, and projections to account for potential trade policy instability and the possibility of additional tariff adjustments.
Despite these structural challenges, consumer demand for olive oil remains robust, driven heavily by growing interest in its health benefits. American buyers continue to demonstrate a willingness to pay premium prices for high-quality extra virgin olive oil (EVOO).
To navigate ongoing uncertainty, many importers are pursuing an “affordable premium” strategy that balances quality, competitive pricing, and reliable availability. Concurrently, industry stakeholders and trade organizations continue to invest in brand building and consumer education, focusing heavily on the product’s health benefits and culinary versatility.
Final Thoughts for 2026 Procurement
In late 2025, the average olive oil evaluation settled around 4.00 Eu/Kg, leading many market observers to forecast stable or sub-4.00 Eu/Kg levels for early 2026. However, recent extreme weather events have disrupted these projections.
According to Poolred, the average price in January 2026 rose to 4.22 Eu/Kg, climbing further to 4.38 Eu/Kg in February. This volatility underscores the market’s growing sensitivity to climate disruptions, where localized weather events can fundamentally shift supply availability and pricing dynamics within days.
Against this backdrop, prices are unlikely to soften in the short term. While favorable spring weather could improve the outlook for the 2026/27 campaign, buyers should navigate the immediate future, anticipating a firm market.
Navigating this complex sourcing environment, marked by shifting trade policies, requires proactive supply chain management, strategic sourcing, and essential access to on-the-ground teams. Especially for businesses focused on a strong quality-to-value ratio, these elements are essential, extending beyond mere price-cutting.
Contact the Certified Origins sourcing team to learn how our U.S. and European bottling facilities, along with our global sourcing network, can support your operations. We help private label retailers reduce risk and market exposure through strategic pricing and a stronger value proposition, protecting margins and supporting volume growth despite market headwinds.
Our executive and sourcing teams will be attending the Alimentaria exhibition in Barcelona next month (March 23–26). We encourage our partners to schedule a meeting with us to discuss volume needs, strategic planning, and our ongoing sustainability initiatives.
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