The holy grail for former drinkers, the gray area between “one for the road” and a glass of water
February 9, 2026
6 MIN READ
This article is featured in the Magazine “Private Label and National Brands: Decoding Food Retail”, created in collaboration with Global Retail Brands. You can find more insights about the Magazine and additional articles here.
They’re sneaking into hipster cocktail bars and mainstream supermarkets with the same ease as someone saying, “Let’s have a quick call,” only to hold you hostage for two hours. But let’s step back: what’s really going on here?
The “Almost” Industry
United States: In the U.S., the No/Lo-alcohol market is booming, forecasted to approach $5 billion by 2028, driven primarily by a significant shift toward health consciousness and wellness among consumers, especially Millennials and Gen Z. Non- alcoholic spirits and ready-to-drink beverages (RTDs) are the fastest-growing segments, reflecting Americans’ desire for sophisticated, convenient, and health-conscious alternatives.
The kombucha category also continues to flourish, projected to surpass $6 billion by 2032, as consumers increasingly embrace its perceived health benefits and unique flavors. Interestingly, the “sober curious” movement is strongly influencing market dynamics, emphasizing moderation without compromising on the social and sensory experiences traditionally associated with alcohol consumption.
Europe: Europe remains a substantial and mature market for No/Lo beverages, reaching €8.6 billion in 2023 with a projected growth to €15.4 billion by 2032. Beer dominates the European No/Lo landscape, accounting for over 90% of market value, reflecting deeply rooted cultural preferences. However, the wine and spirits segments, including proxies and non-alcoholic distilled spirits, are experiencing significant growth, driven by consumer interest in premiumization and more complex sensory experiences.
Kombucha is rapidly emerging across Europe, with sales expected to nearly triple by 2030, boosted by a heightened focus on wellness and the proliferation of specialty retail and online channels. Regulatory developments, particularly concerning labeling and production standards, are also shaping the market, creating new opportunities for innovation.
Italy: Although smaller compared to the U.S. and broader European markets, Italy’s No/Lo market is expanding robustly, with projected growth rates of nearly 8% annually through 2030. The recent legalization of domestic production of dealcoholized wine represents a significant turning point, spurring substantial investments from major wine producers and igniting consumer interest. Non-alcoholic wine sales alone saw impressive growth, increasing nearly 40% in value in 2023, reflecting Italians’ growing preference for mindful drinking.
The Italian market also mirrors global trends toward fermented beverages like kombucha, driven by increased awareness of gut health and stress reduction benefits. This evolving landscape presents significant opportunities for innovation, especially in creating high-quality products that celebrate Italy’s rich culinary and agricultural heritage.
There are several trends that fuel this market growth:
• Changing consumption habits: Younger generations prioritize health and wellness, reducing alcohol intake for lighter, sophisticated alternatives.
• Rise in premium options: Luxury mocktails and alcohol-free spirits now compete directly with high-end alcoholic beverages.
• Regulatory shifts:Policies encouraging alcohol reduction boost the alternative beverage market.
• Expanding taste culture:Consumers demand aromatic complexity and ritualistic experiences.
The real question: Will the market hold up? Spoiler: It depends on who survives natural selection.
The Terroir of No/Lo: Crafting a New Production Identity
In the wine world, terroir defines a bottle’s uniqueness: a perfect synthesis of land, climate, farming techniques, and tradition. InNo/Lo beverages, terroir can be reinterpreted through ingredient quality, fermentation and maceration processes, artisanal botanicals, and ingredient origins.
A valuable No/Lo beverage can’t merely be alcohol-free liquid, it must embody a connection to its territory and production culture. The recipe plays a pivotal role: acidity balance, aromatic structure, and texture demand as much attention as a fine wine or craft spirit. Spontaneous fermentations, herbal and spice infusions, and innovative extraction methods add distinctiveness, setting quality No/Lo products apart from generic, soulless offerings.
Top No/Lo producers don’t simply replace alcohol with chemicals and sweeteners, they create authentic sensory experiences. Ingredient origins, meticulous processing, and transparency across the supply chain distinguish the finest products, transforming them into something that evokes a place, a history, and a genuine craft beyond the simplistic idea of a “non-alcoholic drink.”
Brand Darwinism: Who Stays Standing?
Brands with a clear identity: No/Lo is already crowded with branding Franken- steins, attempting to please everyone and ending up as the liquid equivalent of a Zoom party. Differentiate or perish: owning a strong niche is essential.
Brands selling experiences: If your product tastes like apple juice pretending to be champagne, you’re out. Ritual, culture, and compelling reasons to uncork it matter.
Brands telling authentic stories: If you claim your drink is “inspired by 13th-century Norwegian monks,” you’d better have at least one monk on the team. And then, inevitably: private labels. They enter, copy, simplify, and win on price, but now face a challenge. Without compelling narratives and premium ingredients, they risk becoming the liquid version of a €90 “basic but premium” T-shirt.
The 7 Rules for No/Lo Success (Or, How Not to End Up Discounted in Six Months)
Find Your Tribe: Brand success isn’t just measured in sales but loyalty. Better a small, passionate community than millions of occasional, indifferent buyers. Strong brands foster belonging, creating shared identities.
Sell Rituals, Not Liquids: Products must offer experiences. Think Japanese tea ceremonies, wine rituals, carefully crafted cocktails: they generate value. If your drink is just watered-down alcohol substitute, you’re doomed.
Be Clear: No/Lo consumers don’t like deception. Avoid vague slogans: clearly communicate why your product exists and what to expect. Transparency builds trust.
Transparency Wins: Consumers want details: ingredient origins, producers, processes. Transparency isn’t merely ethical, it’s a competitive edge.
Be More Than “Alcohol-Free”: If your product’s only advantage is no alcohol, you’re already losing. Complex flavors, authentic taste experiences, and dedicated production methods must create excitement, not compromise.
Choose Your Channels Wisely: Omnipresence dilutes identity. Be selective; place your products where values align and storytelling thrives. Premium brands lose identity in price focused outlets.
Education is Crucial: Consumers aren’t fully No/Lo-savvy yet. If buyers don’t understand your product, they won’t repurchase. Tastings, storytelling, bartender engagement: all transform niche products into conscious, desirable choices.
Not for Amateurs
The No/Lo market is the new Wild West; the gold rush is just beginning. Only those who understand that building a brand is more than just crafting a product will succeed, those who tell authentic stories and deliver worthwhile experiences.
Everyone else? They’ll land on nostalgia’s shelves, alongside charcoal detox juices and chakra-aligning functional waters (spoiler alert: they don’t work).
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