Certified Origins - Probable Futures Report Q2

The Growth of Olive Oil in the U.S.

By Nabig Chaudhry — May 30, 2025

7 MIN READ

The changing climate is impacting olive oil production across the world, affecting both major growing regions in the Mediterranean and smaller but expanding ones in North America. The U.S. is one of those newer olive oil producers, accounting for just 0.5% of global olive production in 2022¹. But as the U.S. olive oil industry rapidly grows, it faces mounting climate challenges.

In just a few decades, U.S. production and consumption of olive oil has surged². Since the 1990s, olive oil has become increasingly popular as more Americans recognize its health benefits, complex flavors, and versatility in the kitchen³. As of 2024, the U.S. consumes more than 15% of the world’s olive oil, with annual use estimated at over 400,000 metric tons⁴.

On the production side, California leads U.S. production by a wide margin. The state’s olive oil production increased more than tenfold over the past few decades from 2 million pounds in 2006 to an average of 21 million pounds between 2021-2023⁵. Like Spain and Italy, much of California benefits from a Mediterranean-style climate—mild, wet winters and warm, dry summers—that is ideal for olive cultivation. The state’s diverse microclimates also support a growing range of olive varieties, now totaling more than 75, each with its own flavor, harvest timing, and growing needs⁶.

Today, California produces about 99% of the olives grown in the U.S., and nearly all of that oil is consumed domestically⁷. But as in other olive-growing regions, climate change is bringing new and intensifying challenges and threatening the reliability of conditions that once made California so well-suited for olives.

In the maps below, we can see how California shares similar climate zones with other Mediterranean olive growing regions like Spain and Italy.

Climate Challenges in California

Olive trees have long thrived in Mediterranean climates like those found in much of California, where wet winters, warm days, and cool nights help olives ripen slowly and fully⁸. This consistent pattern is key to healthy harvests but olives are also sensitive. Too much or too little water, extreme heat, or extreme cold and frost can all disrupt the growing process⁹. The length of these extremes is important too. Prolonged drought, extreme heat, or extreme cold can reduce yields, damage branches, or even kill trees.

While California shares many climate advantages with places like Spain and Italy, some of the challenges it faces are unique. Many growers first planted olives because the trees were seen as more drought-tolerant than other crops and fruit trees¹⁰. In a state with a long history of water scarcity, olives seemed like a good fit. As a result of labor and climate conditions, most California olive orchards today are irrigated and often highly mechanized, unlike many traditional rainfed orchards in the Mediterranean. While this reduces reliance on rainfall, it shifts the burden to other parts of the water system, especially snowpack in the Sierra Nevadas, which feeds California’s rivers and reservoirs and is critical for irrigation¹².

But climate change is reshaping these patterns. Wider swings in water availability, more frequent extreme heat, and reduced rainfall and snowpack can make olive cultivation more precarious^13,14. On top of that, the risk of wildfires looms large, as blazes can burn through and destroy entire orchards¹⁵.

The Risks of Decreasing Snowpack

Beyond heat, cold, and shifting rainfall, declining snowfall may be one of the most serious threats to olive oil production in California. Snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountains, which supply much of the water for the Central Valley, is especially critical. In some parts of the state, water also comes from snowpack in the Rocky Mountains via the Colorado River system. These snowpacks act like natural water banks, accumulating in the winter and melting slowly into rivers and reservoirs during dry months. In turn, releasing and providing water when rainfall is scarce.

As the Earth warms, California is seeing fewer snowy days each year, on average. Less snow means less snowpack, and that reduces the water available for irrigation. Even highly mechanized olive farms may struggle if the water supply dwindles. Without consistent snowmelt, olive growers across the state face a growing risk of water shortages that could weaken trees, lower yields, or even wipe out harvests. This is especially concerning because most of the state’s crops are grown in super high density (SHD) orchards or intensively farmed groves where thousands of trees are planted closely together.

Without consistent snowmelt, olive growers across the state face a growing risk of water shortages that could weaken trees, lower yields, or even wipe out harvests, as the majority of the state’s crop is intensively farmed super high density (SHD) orchards.

The map below shows how snowfall has already declined today, as we are virtually at 1.5°C of warming. Looking ahead to a possible future with 3°C of warming, which is expected by the 2060s if current emissions trends continue, projections suggest an even greater drop in snowy days, dramatically reducing the state’s snowpack and the water available to olive growers.

The Risks of Increasing Wildfire

Wildfires in California are becoming hotter, larger, and more frequent due to climate change. These fires are driven by a mix of factors like how land is used, where people live, and how dry and abundant the vegetation is¹⁶. Longer fire seasons and more intense blazes are already reshaping landscapes, ecosystems, and agriculture across the state¹⁷.

For olive growers, wildfires pose a direct and devastating risk. Fires can burn through entire orchards, destroy equipment and infrastructure, and make recovery extremely difficult. In recent years, large-scale wildfires have wiped out thousands of acres of farmland, including vineyards and orchards, with some growers losing harvests for multiple seasons. Wildfires can also worsen other climate hazards, such as drought, by damaging watersheds and further reducing water availability for olive orchards¹⁸.

The map below shows that even today, as we are virtually at 1.5°C of warming, the number of wildfire danger days has increased. Looking ahead to a possible future with 3°C of warming, which is expected by the 2060s if emissions continue at their current pace, projections suggest even more days of high fire danger and a broader portion of the state affected.

Adapting California’s Olive Orchards for a Changing Climate

Climate adaptation is a continuous process of making human and natural systems, like agriculture, better able to withstand challenges that stem from climate change. For California’s olive growers, adaptation will be essential as they face shifting conditions: more extreme temperatures, more intense and frequent droughts, reduced snowpack and water supplies, and rising wildfire risks. In many ways, farmers in California have already been adapting to the state’s changing climate.

Compared to more water-intensive crops, olives are relatively drought-tolerant, which has made them a historically suitable choice for many farmers in California. Many olive growers have already invested in irrigation systems to keep their trees healthy through dry months and summer heat. But as climate impacts intensify, olive growers will need to go further and not only understand the specific risks they face but also take practical steps to manage them.

Adapting to extreme temperatures

To prepare for extreme heat or cold, olive growers can monitor forecasts closely and track how long and intense these events are. To reduce heat stress on olive trees, they can use mesh covers to provide shade, apply mulch to retain soil moisture, or spray protective crop “sunscreen” to reflect sunlight¹⁹. For extreme cold or frost, olive growers can utilize wind machines that help pull warmer air down to protect trees at ground level²⁰. Another strategy is for olive growers to select olive varieties with traits better suited to their current or future climate conditions, as different varieties tolerate heat, cold, and drought in different ways. Some olive growers may also choose to relocate to regions with better current or projected growing conditions.

Adapting to water scarcity

To prepare for less water availability due to drought or reduced snowpack, olive growers can rethink how they manage and store water. They might divert water towards less drought-resistant crops during dry years, or capture floodwater in on-farm basins that recharge groundwater for later use²¹. Rainwater harvesting, using methods ranging from barrels to retention ponds, can provide additional water storage for later use in some parts of the state. The use of highly-efficient irrigation such as drip irrigation systems can also make every drop count, by delivering water directly and optimally to the roots of each tree²².

Adapting to wildfires

To reduce wildfire risk, olive growers can clear combustible materials like dry grasses, shrubs, or dead leaves from their orchards. Another strategy is olive growers can create fuel breaks or strips of land designed to slow or stop a fire by using low-flammability plants or clearing vegetation along their property lines²³.

As olive oil production continues to grow in California, there is an opportunity not only to protect this emerging agricultural sector but to lead by example. With greater climate literacy and proactive planning, olive growers can protect their orchards today while preparing them for the conditions of tomorrow.

Probable Futures Report Q2

California Olive Oil Production

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