Resolute Resilience for a Warming World
This article is featured in the Magazine “Exploring Origin – The Importance of Knowing Where Food Comes From”, created in collaboration with Global Retail Brands. You can find more insights about the Magazine and additional articles here.
Foods are inseparable from their place of origin.
Around the world, special local climate conditions and cultural traditions combine to produce special flavors. People look to labels to identify foods from specific locales.
Systems for labeling foods by origin have existed for thousands of years. Around 7000 years ago, the first such recorded system identified the production location of two kinds of cheese in Egypt, according to Cheeses: A Global History by Andrew Dalby. In modern times, there are appellations: systems to legally certify that certain foods come from particular places and are produced in traditional ways.
When the rain in Spain meets increasing heat
In Spain, where olive cultivation began over 3000 years ago and about half of the world’s olive oil is produced, there are 32 protected designation of origin (DO) extra virgin olive oils from specific regions. The first DO oil on the Olive Oils from Spain website is Aceite Campo de Calatrava, from the Ciudad Real province, where, the website reports, local producers make oils that are full and intense, and with fruity profiles from olives selected at the optimal moment of ripeness.
Stable climate conditions supported this luscious harvest for millennia. Unfortunately, in the last few years, hot and dry weather in Spain interrupted the delicate process of cultivating olives. Let’s look at the Ciudad Real region to understand more about the conditions olive oil producers have experienced there.
The map below shows the likelihood of drought lasting more than a year in southern Spain in a 1°C warming scenario, which was around 2017. Drought is a temporary state of dryness that represents a deviation from the historical norm. It is a way to understand the stress of dryness on local ways of life and plants adapted to a region. The moderate drought seen here historically happened about 20% of the time, but by 2017 it happened about 30% of the time.
Likelihood of year-plus drought in southern Spain around 2017.
For thousands of years, this region’s climate was a delicate balance: warm but not too warm, and dry but not too dry. Because warmer air holds more water than cooler air, heating pulls moisture into the air, away from everything else.
Likelihood of year-plus drought in a 1.5C warming scenario.
Likelihood of year-plus drought in southern Spain in a 1.5°C warming scenario, breached for the first time last year. Global warming at just 1.0°C above the historical average elevated the risk of drought from 20% to 30%. Additional warming to 1.5°C, a global average temperature which was breached for the first time last year, raises the risk to 44%, as seen on the map above. This means drought should be expected nearly every other year.
Spain is not experiencing the same conditions it did for the thousands of years since olive cultivation began, nor when the first DO was created in 1925; already, harvest yields have diminished. What are the implications for olive oil and other protected foods in Spain?
Until recently, maps like the ones above were not publicly accessible and easy to use. With Probable Futures maps, anyone can look ahead to future conditions and prepare. What conditions should other places with protected foods expect now and in the future? Let’s look at Italy.
The future of Mediterranean protected foods
Denominazione di Origine Protetta (DOP) in Italy is another well-known appellation. The Italian ministry for agriculture website provides a definition of DOP: “A product originating from a specific geographic area, which determines its quality and characteristics and in which the phases of its production take place.”
DOP-certified San Marzano tomatoes are famously grown only in an area around Naples, where consistent humidity and ample water coincide with rich volcanic soil. Sicily produces rich agricultural products of all kinds. The river valleys in northern Italy are known for their lush growing seasons, olive oils, and wines.
All of these places rely on predictable rainfall and temperature patterns. But in the last several years, these areas began experiencing hotter and drier conditions. Could producers look ahead to expected future conditions, prepare to operate in those conditions, and reduce the loss of harvests in the future?
The map below shows the number of days above 35°C (95°F) in a historic climate, between the 1970s and 2000. In the area where DOP-certified San Marzano tomatoes are produced, about a week (9 days) above 35°C could be expected in an average year, and about a month (32 days) in a warmer year.
Days above 35°C (95°F) in Italy in the past.
The next map shows a 2°C warming scenario, which is the global average temperature expected to be reached around the 2040s. In this world, producers of San Marzano tomatoes would experience about a month (28 days) of days above 35°C (95°F) in an average year, and two months (61 days) in a warmer year.
Days above 35°C (95°F) in Italy in a 2°C warming scenario, expected in the 2040s at the current rate of global warming.
The Mediterranean is becoming drier as it gets hotter. Producing food in the future will require new adaptations combined with traditional knowledge about the foods that have thrived there in the past.
Anchored in the past, looking to the future
What would happen to foods from designated areas if local conditions change too drastically? The loss of these tastes and textures and the traditional ways of producing them would be a monumental tragedy.
Thankfully, for many foods, conditions have not yet changed enough to halt production, but changes are happening quickly. Now is the time for experienced producers to explore expected future conditions and plan to adapt accordingly.
Equipped with knowledge of the future, producers of protected foods around the world have an opportunity to preserve their traditions for future generations to enjoy. From my plate to yours: here’s hoping they do.
Sources:
www.mardeolivos.co.uk
www.oliveoilsfromspain.org
www.bbc.com
www.dopigp.politicheagricole.gov.it
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